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The General Growth Trend of the Chinese Economy Going Forward

China recently completed its "11th Five Years" period. During this period, China registered remarkable growth in its productivity and overall national competitiveness. China's GDP was barely CNY 364.5 billion in 1987, but skyrocketed to over CNY 10 trillion in 2001, over CNY 20 trillion in 2006, over CNY 30 trillion in 2008, more than CNY 40 trillion in 2010, and over CNY 47 trillion in 2011. This is approximately equivalent to USD 7 trillion at current exchange rates, with a GDP per capita estimated near USD 5,000. The Chinese economy has kept growing at a rate of 9.5 percent per annum on average since 2000 (see Tables 1.1 and 1.2).

TABLE 1.1 Economic Growth in China and Global Rankings (2000-2011)

GDP (in billions)

Growth

World

Year

CNY

USD

Rate (%)

Ranking

China/USA

2000

9,921.46

1,198.48

8.4

6

12.1

2001

10,965.52

1,324.80

8.3

6

12.9

2002

12,033.27

1,453.83

9.1

5

13.7

2003

13,582.28

1,640.96

10.0

6

14.8

2004

15,987.83

1,931.64

10.1

6

16.4

2005

18,493.74

2,256.90

11.3

5

17.9

2006

21,631.44

2,712.95

12.7

4

20.3

2007

26,581.03

3,494.06

14.2

3

25.0

2008

31,404.54

4,521.83

9.6

3

31.6

2009

34,050.69

4,991.26

9.2

3

35.5

2010

40,120.20

5,878.63

10.4

2

40.3

2011

43,811.20

6,954.16

9.3

2

46.8

Notes:

1. GDP figures are calculated at prices and exchange rates of the respective year, whereas growth rate figures are based on constant price.

2. Figures for 2011 are estimates.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China and World Bank.

TABLE I.Z Growth of GDP per Capita in China (2000-2011)

Year

GDP per Capita (CNY)

Growth Rate (%)

GDP per Capita (USD)

Growth Rate (%)

2000

7,858

9.76

949

9.71

2001

8,622

9.72

1,042

9.80

2002

9,398

9.00

1,135

8.93

2003

10,542

12.17

1,274

12.25

2004

12,336

17.02

1,490

16.95

2005

14,185

14.99

1,731

16.17

2006

16,500

16.32

2,069

19.53

2007

20,169

22.24

2,651

28.13

2008

23,708

17.55

3,414

28.78

2009

25,575

7.87

3,749

9.81

2010

29,748

16.32

4,313

15.04

2011

31,900

7.23

5,000

15.93

Notes:

1. Figures for 2011 are estimates.

2. The population in 2011 was estimated at 1.37 billion. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China and World Bank.

Despite the transition of the growth model, the rise of labor cost, and the greater uncertainties in internal and external demands induced by violent fluctuations in the world market, the Chinese economy will continue to grow at a rate seen in the first decade of the twenty-first century. This is thanks to the urban-rural integration, economic industrialization and informationization, industrial structure adjustment, and other factors. Most experts and renowned organizations believe that the growth rate of the Chinese economy will remain at a range of 8 percent to 8.5 percent per annum until 2020. GDP is expected to hit CNY 87 trillion (equivalent to USD 13.9 trillion at current CNY/USD exchange rates of 6.3/1). This is calculated using the CNY 40 trillion Chinese GDP in 2011 as the base number and 8 percent as the annual growth rate, ignoring price factor. It is comparable to 80 percent of the U.S. GDP of USD 17 .7 trillion, calculated using the USD 13.9 trillion in 2010 GDP as the base number and 2 percent as the annual growth rate, or higher if factors such as U.S. dollar depreciation and RMB appreciation are taken into account (see Table 1.3).

 
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