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China’s Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast - Xiamen University


Year 2016

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Chapter 1 IntroductionChapter 2 A Review of China's Economy in 20142.1 Economic Growth Continued to Fall, but the Proportion of the Tertiary Industry Continued to Improve2.2 Fixed Asset Investment Growth Fell Sharply, but the Investment Structure Started to Improve2.3 The Industrial Profit Growth Declined Sharply, and Eliminating Backward Production Capacity Achieved Certain Progress2.4 Import and Export Growth Fell Sharply, but the Trade Structure Continued to Improve2.5 Resident Real Income Growth was Slowing2.6 Price Index Continued the Trend of “Double Down,” and the Structural Deflation was Increasing2.7 The Monetary Policy Targeted Eased, and Financing Costs Remained High2.8 Fiscal Revenue Growth Was Falling, but the Fiscal Expenditure Structure Continued to ImproveChapter 3 Forecast of China's Economy During 2015–20163.1 Assumptions of Exogenous Variables3.1.1 Economic Growth Rates of the USA and the Eurozone3.1.2 Major Exchange Rates3.1.3 The Growth Rate of Broad Money Supply (M2)3.2 Forecasts of China's Major Macroeconomic Indicators for 2015–20163.2.1 Forecast of GDP Growth3.2.2 Forecasts of Major Price Indices3.2.3 Forecasts of Growth Rates of Other Major Macroeconomic Indicators3.2.3.1 Export, Import, and Reserve Growth3.2.3.2 The Growth Rate of Total Fixed Capital3.2.3.3 The Growth Rate of ConsumptionChapter 4 Policy Simulations4.1 Background Analysis of Policy Simulations4.2 Scenario Design of Policy Simulations4.3 The Result of Policy Simulations4.3.1 The Simulation Result of Scenario 14.3.2 The Simulation Results of Scenario 2Chapter 5 Policy Implications and SuggestionsChapter 6 Comments and Discussion6.1 Professor Liu Shucheng, Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Ideal Path and Growth Potential of the “New Normal”6.2 Professor Gao Peiyong, President of Strategic Finance Academy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:6.3 Professor Zhang Yansheng, General Secretary6.4 Professor Wang Luolin, Ad Hoc Consultant and Former Executive Vice President of the Chinese Academy6.5 Yang Ruilong, Professor of School of Economics, Renmin University of China: Emphasizing the Bottom-Line Management While Facing New Challenges Under6.6 Jia Kang, President of China Academy of New SupplySide Economics and Professor of Research Institute for Fiscal Science, Ministry of Finance: The Reform6.7 Jia Yandong, Researcher and Deputy DirectorChapter 7 A Report of the Questionnaire Survey on the Macroeconomic Situation and Policy of China in 2015Appendix
 
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