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Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction - William G.Kennedy

Oral PresentationsHuman Development Dynamics: An Agent Based Simulation of Adaptive Heterogeneous Games and Social Systems1 Introduction2 HD Dynamics Background3 A Human Development Dynamics Model4 Sensitivity Analysis5 ConclusionsReferencesMobility Patterns and User Dynamics in Racially Segregated Geographies of US Cities1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Data Description4 Experimental Setup4.1 Models of Movement Pattern5 Results and Discussion6 ConclusionReferencesIncorporating Interpretation into Risky Decision-Making A Computational Model1 Introduction2 A Theory and Model of Risky Decision-Making2.1 Categorical Routine2.2 Ordinal Routine2.3 Interval Routine3 Testing Our Model3.1 Meta-analysis3.2 DiscussionReferencesLabeling Actors in Social Networks Using a Heterogeneous Graph Kernel1 Introduction2 Preliminaries3 Heterogeneous Graph Kernel3.1 Kernel Function3.2 Efficient Computation3.3 Learning to Label Actors in Social Network4 Experimental Settings and Results4.1 Social Media Data4.2 Methods4.3 Experimental Design and Results5 SummaryReferencesSample Size Determination to Detect Cusp Catastrophe in Stochastic Cusp Catastrophe Model: A Monte-Carlo Simulation-Based Approach1 Introduction2 Overview of the Cusp Catastrophe Model2.1 Deterministic Cusp Catastrophe Model2.2 Stochastic Cusp Catastrophe Model2.3 Detection of Cusp Catastrophe3 Monte-Carlo Simulation-Based Power Analysis Approach3.1 Statistical Power and Sample Size Determination3.2 Monte-Carlo Simulation-Based Approach4 Zeeman's Data Analysis4.1 Zeeman's Data4.2 Stochastic Cusp Catastrophe Model Fitting4.3 Power Calculation and Sample Size Determination4.4 Reverse-Verification5 DiscussionsReferencesWho Will Follow a New Topic Tomorrow?1 Introduction2 Influence Factors for Research Topic Adoption2.1 Direct Observation2.2 Indirect Observation3 Model Formulation3.1 NetInf*3.2 HetNetInf4 Experiments4.1 The Dataset and Experimental Setting4.2 Prediction Study5 ConclusionReferencesIdentifying Emergent Thought Leaders1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Team Communications Data and Observer-Based Leaders4 Automated Coding of Team Leaders5 Example Interface Using the Results6 ConclusionReferencesSystem-Subsystem Dependency Network for Integrating Multicomponent Data and Application to Health Sciences1 Introduction2 Background for Generalized Dependency Network and the Techniques for Learning the Network3 Analysis 1: Comparison of Methods3.1 Results for Analysis 14 Analysis 2: Learning from Two Data Sets4.1 Results from Analysis 25 DiscussionReferencesHow Individuals Weigh Their Previous Estimates to Make a New Estimate in the Presence or Absence of Social Influence1 Introduction1.1 Aggregation of Individual Estimates1.2 Weighing Process in Aggregation2 The Experiment3 Modeling3.1 No Info Model3.2 Aggregate Info Model3.3 Parameter Estimation4 DiscussionReferencesTwo 1%s Don't Make a Whole: Comparing Simultaneous Samples from Twitter's1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Methodology4 Results4.1 RQ1: How Different Are Streaming API Samples from Others Taken at the Same Time?4.2 RQ2: Can One Obtain More Tweets Simply by Employing Multiple Streaming API Samples?4.3 RQ3: Do the Features of Tweets Shared Across Samples Differ from Those That Are Not?5 ConclusionReferencesEstimating Social Network Structure and Propagation Dynamics for an Infectious Disease1 Introduction2 Methods2.1 Data2.2 Disease Process2.3 Estimation Algorithm3 Results3.1 Estimation Algorithm Results3.2 Control4 ConclusionsReferencesPredicting Social Ties in Massively Multiplayer Online Games1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Description of Game X3.1 Groups in Game X3.2 Communication in Game X4 Experiments4.1 Methods4.2 Results5 Conclusions and Future WorkReferencesWinning by Following the Winners: Mining the Behaviour of Stock Market Experts in Social Media1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Mining Winning Traders3.1 Identifying Target Tweets3.2 Identifying Traders3.3 Ranking Traders and Recommending Trades4 Experimental Results5 ConclusionReferencesQuantifying Political Legitimacy from Twitter*1 Introduction and Related Work2 The Proposed Method2.1 Step 1: Vectorizing Tweets2.2 Step 2: Computing L-Scores of Tweets2.3 Step 3: Aggregating L-Scores of Tweets3 Empirical Validation4 ConclusionReferencesPath Following in Social Web Search1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Methodology3.1 Generating Search Paths3.2 Participants and Procedure4 Results and Discussion5 ConclusionsReferencesMulti-objective Optimization for Multi-level Networks1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Multi-level Networks4 Multi-objective Optimization5 Approximate Network Bisection of Social Networks6 Results7 ConclusionReferencesCover Your Cough! Quantifying the Benefits of a Localized Healthy Behavior Intervention on Flu Epidemics in Washington DC1 Introduction2 The Synthetic Population2.1 Base Population (Residents)2.2 Transient Population3 Experiments3.1 Results4 ConclusionsReferencesIntegrating Epidemiological Modeling and Surveillance Data Feeds: A Kalman Filter Based Approach1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Model Description3.1 Agent Model3.2 Population Models3.3 Extended Kalman Filter Model4 Experimental Setup4.1 Simulation Setup4.2 Kalman Filter Configuration5 Results6 Discussion7 SummaryReferencesIdentifying Users with Opposing Opinions in Twitter Debates1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Methodology4 Evaluation5 Conclusions and Future WorkReferencesA New Approach for Item Ranking Based on Review Scores Reflecting Temporal Trust Factor1 Introduction2 Ranking Method3 Experiments3.1 Dataset3.2 Results4 ConclusionReferencesSegmenting Large-Scale Cyber Attacks for Online Behavior Model Generation1 Introduction2 Attack Segmentation and Model Generation2.1 Attack Model2.2 Graph-Based Prior Probability2.3 Model Introduction Strategy2.4 Segmentation of Irrelevant Behaviors3 Experimental Results4 ConclusionReferencesEmergent Consequences: Unexpected Behaviors in a Simple Model to Support Innovation Adoption, Planning, and Evaluation1 Introduction2 A Logical Model of the Adoption of Innovations3 An Agent-Based Implementation4 Model Behavior5 ImplicationsReferencesDeriving Population Assessment through Opinion Polls, Text Analytics, and Agent-Based Modeling1 Introduction2 Methodology2.1 Simulating Population Opinion Dynamics with an Agent-Based Model2.2 A Model for Analyzing Unstructured Text3 Results4 ConclusionReferencesmFingerprint: Privacy-Preserving User Modeling with Multimodal Mobile Device Footprints1 Introduction2 Related Work3 mFingerprint System Overview4 Footprint Feature Computation and User Identification4.1 Frequency Based Footprint Features4.2 Entropy Based Footprint Features4.3 Conditional Entropy and Frequency Based Footprint Features5 Evaluation5.1 Data Collection and Experimental Settings5.2 User Identification Performance6 ConclusionReferencesPoster Presentations Using Trust Model for Detecting Malicious Activities in Twitter*1 Introduction2 Related Work3 A Heterogeneous Social Graph Representation of Twitter4 Backward Propagation of Trustworthiness5 Evaluation6 ConclusionReferencesPredicting Guild Membership in Massively Multiplayer Online Games1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Method4 Game X Guild Dataset5 Results6 Conclusion and Future WorkReferencesEmoticon and Text Production in First and Second Languages in Informal Text Communication1 Introduction2 Prior Research2.1 Bilingual Speakers2.2 Emoticon Use in Informal Text Communication3 Background on the Scientific Collaboration and Chat Dataset4 Analysis and Results4.1 Data4.2 Results5 Discussion and Conclusions6 Limitations and Future WorkReferencesThe Needs of Metaphor1 Introduction2 Background and Related Work3 Identifying Maslow's Needs4 Data Collection5 Analysis6 ConclusionReferencesBehavior in the Time of Cholera: Evidence from the 2008-2009 Cholera Outbreak in Zimbabwe1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Model3.1 Water Treatment Game3.2 Cholera Outbreak System4 Selected Calibration5 DiscussionReferencesMutual Information Technique in Assessing Crosstalk through a Random-Pairing Bootstrap Method1 Introduction1.1 Crosstalk and Its Significance in Health Sciences1.2 Challenges for Evaluating Crosstalk1.3 Purpose of This Study2 Methods2.1 Random Pairing-Bootstrap (RPB)2.2 Correlation and Mutual Information3 Study 1: Simulation Analysis to Assess the Validity of RPB4 Study 2: Simulation Analysis to Assess the Validity of MI5 Study 3: Analysis of Empirical Data6 Discussion and ConclusionsReferencesNew Methods of MappingThe Application of Social Network Analysis to the Study of the Illegal Trade in Antiquities1 Introduction2 Methodology3 The Italian Network3.1 Overview3.2 Comparison of Network Structure3.3 Representation of Networkand Actor-Level Structure and Dynamics4 Discussion5 ConclusionReferencesA New Paradigm for the Study of Corruption in Different Cultures1 Introduction2 Implementation Using Colored Trails3 Empirical Methodology, Setup, and Results4 A Machine Learning Model of Corruption5 Conclusions and Future WorkReferencesA Study of Mobile Information Exploration with Multi-touch Interactions1 Introduction2 Related Works3 Research Design3.1 Task and Data Collection3.2 The Experimental System: ConfReader3.3 Participants and Procedure4 Result Analysis and Discussions4.1 Descriptive Statistics on Multi-touch Interactions4.2 Dragging Down vs. Dragging Up4.3 Inferring Users' Interests from Dragging Up/Down4.4 Predicting Users' Bookmarks Using Rich Interactions5 ConclusionReferencesDyadic Attribution: A Theoretical Model for Interpreting Online Words and Actions1 Introduction2 Words and Intention in Human Interactions3 Trustworthiness Attributions3.1 Internal vs. External Factors3.2 Attribution Mechanisms4 Dyadic Attribution Model4.1 Example of Tagging and Attribution4.2 Analysis and Discussion5 Conclusions and Future WorkReferencesModeling Impact of Social Stratification on the Basis of Time Allocation Heuristics in Society1 Introduction2 Related Work3 The Model3.1 Network Evolution3.2 Meeting Scheduling Procedures3.3 Stratifying the System4 Measures5 Results6 ConclusionsReferencesThe Social Aspect of Voting for Useful Reviews1 Introduction2 Modeling and Hypotheses3 Data4 Experiments and Results5 How to Become a Local CelebReferencesSimulating International Energy Security1 Introduction2 Model2.1 Model Description2.2 Data Sources3 Model Results and Analysis3.1 Global Outcomes3.2 Country-Level Analysis4 DiscussionReferencesTeam PsychoSocial Assessment via Discourse Analysis: Power and Comfort/Routine1 Introduction2 Inferring Relationships from Dialog: Power and Politeness2.1 ADMIRE's Architecture and Reasoning Approach2.2 Power Assessment Application 1—Military Chat2.3 Power Assessment Application 2: Apollo Radio Communications3 Comfort/Routine—Developing a New Assessment Technique4 Future WorkReferencesSocial TV and the Social Soundtrack: Significance of Second Screen Interaction during Television Viewing1 Introduction2 Related Work2.1 Social TV (sTV)2.2 Integration of Prior Work3 Research Question1. Is the usage of secondary screen significant for social interactions during live transmission of TV shows?2. Is the usage of mobile devices as secondary screen significant for interaction during live transmission of TV shows?4 Data Collection5 Result6 Discussion7 ConclusionReferencesSocial Network Structures of Primary Health Care Teams Associated with Health Outcomes in Alcohol Drinkers with Diabetes1 Introduction2 Methods2.1 Overview and Sample2.2 Survey Instrument3 Measures3.1 Definition of Care Team3.2 Social Network Parameters for Instrumental and Expressive Ties3.3 Diabetic Patient Outcomes3.4 Staff Turnover3.5 Team Climate4 Statistical Analysis5 Results6 Discussion6.1 Limitations6.2 ConclusionsReferencesEmerging Dynamics in Crowdfunding Campaigns1 Introduction2 Related Work3 Data Collection and Pre-processing4 Data Analysis4.1 Method4.2 Results4.3 Discussions5 ConclusionReferencesIncorporating Social Theories in Computational Behavioral Models1 Introduction2 Background3 Approach4 Application5 ConclusionReferencesContexts of Diffusion: Adoption of Research Synthesis in Social Work and Women's Studies1 Introduction1.1 Research Contexts and Research Synthesis2 Data, Analysis, and Visualization2.1 Bibliometric Mapping2.2 Topic Modeling3 Contexts: RSM in Social Work and Women's Studies3.1 Knowledge Base Interactions3.2 Diffusion Dynamics and Topics Associated with RSM3.3 Summary: RSM in Social Work and Women's Studies3.4 Conclusion and Future ResearchReferencesTemporal Dynamics of Scale-Free Networks1 Introduction2 Datasets3 Results4 Summary and Future WorkReferencesBig Data-Driven Marketing: How Machine Learning Outperforms Marketers' Gut-Feeling1 Introduction2 Best Practice3 Data-Driven Approach3.1 Features3.2 Model3.3 Out-of Sample Validation4 Experiment5 DiscussionReferences“Frogs in a Pot”: An Agent-Based Model of Well-Being versus Prosperity1 Introduction2 Assumptions and Specification of the Agent-Based Model2.1 Basic Assumptions of the Model2.2 Detailed Specification of the Model3 Simulation Results3.1 General3.2 Fully-Aware Agents (q=1)3.3 Partially-Aware Agents4 Discussion and ConclusionsReferencesFrabjous: A Declarative Domain-Specific Language for Agent-Based Modeling*1 Introduction2 Background2.1 Haskell2.2 Functional Reactive Programming2.3 Frabjous3 The Frabjous Modeling Language4 An Extended Example: The SIR Model4.1 Adding Time-Varying Infectiousness4.2 Adding Dynamic Networks4.3 Usage5 Discussion6 Future WorkReferencesSocial Maintenance and Psychological Support Using Virtual Worlds1 Introduction2 Benefits Gained from Virtual Worlds Can Carry into the Real World3 Method4 Implementation in Virtual Environment5 Future Work and ConclusionReferencesCivil Unrest Prediction: A Tumblr-Based Exploration1 Introduction2 Early Detection Method3 Experimental Results3.1 Dataset and System Implementation4 Conclusion and Future Work5 Acknowledgments and DisclaimerReferencesStudying the Evolution of Online Collective Action: Saudi Arabian Women's 'Oct26Driving' Twitter Campaign1 Introduction2 The Oct26Driving Campaign3 Literature Review4 MethodologyData Collection for the Oct26Driving CampaignTweet Crawling with ScraperWikiTweet Classification and Overlap DetectionNetwork Construction and Visualization5 Analysis and Results5.1 Diffusion of Dominant Hashtags5.2 Identifying Transnational Support6 ConclusionReferencesA Comparative Study of Smoking Cessation Programs on Web Forum and Facebook1 Introduction2 Methods2.1 Data Source2.2 Data Analysis3 Results3.1 User Behavior Analysis (RQ1) Analysis of Response Time3.2 User Behavior of Different Quit Stages (RQ2)4 Discussions5 ConclusionReferences
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