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4 Sensitivity Analysis

In order to make more generalizable model inferences, Table 1 details the interactive parameter effects[1] on economic prosperity Y, as well as strategy choice pairs CC, CD/DC and DD. As all variables are relatively scaled, we can interpret magnitude and substantive effects across OLS β coefficients. The results reflect a quasi-global sensitivity analysis with 500 agents in180 runs and 700 iterations in each run, randomly down-sampled for pooled OLS tractability.

Table 1. Impact on Economic Development and Strategy Pairs

Model

Economic

CC

CD

DD

Economic

1.099* (0.000)

0.666* (0.000)

0.498* (0.000)

Rational Secular

Self Expression

0.492* (0.000)

-0.128*

-0.354* (0.000) 0.156*

-0.186* (0.000) 0.071*

-0.137* (0.000) 0.411*

Democracy

(0.000) 0.262* (0.000)

(0.000) 0.028* (0.000)

(0.000)

-0.209* (0.000)

(0.000)

-0.392* (0.000)

Cooperate

0.354* (0.000)

Defect

Talk-span

-0.080* (0.000) 0.255*

-0.199*

-0.051*

-0.068*

Time

(0.000)

-0.111*

(0.000)

-0.176*

(0.000)

-0.065*

(0.000)

-0.334*

Threshold

(0.000)

-0.063* (0.000)

(0.000)

-0.204* (0.000)

(0.000)

-0.318* (0.000)

(0.000)

-0.365* (0.000)

RAP

0.024* (0.000)

-0.020* (0.000)

-0.289* (0.000)

-0.135* (0.000)

N

78591

81982

73499

61877

Prob > F

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

R-squared

0.946

0.809

0.472

0.412

Root MSE

0.041

0.795

0.978

0.877

Numbers in parentheses are corresponding robust standard errors.

* Significance at 1% level.

Our first model on mean societal economic development Y confirms HD theory that positive values of mean societal RS and D values significantly speed the pace of economic development, although SE is significant and slightly negative; this may relate to a loss of productivity when efforts in isolation are directed away from production and towards self-expression. Looking at the impact of evolutionary games, we see that cooperation has a stronger positive impact than defection or mixed strategies in increasing transaction value to society. Talk-span spatial proximity is positive and significant, confirming priors that increasing technology and compressing potential social space also speed development processes. Time is slightly negative, indicating that economic prosperity is not endogenous to the model. Threshold, agent willingness to engage in transactions, is slightly negative, implying that reduced trust has a slightly negative impact on growth. Lastly, RAP is slightly positive, suggesting increased cognition is beneficial in our simulated environment. Future research will investigate to what extent the RAP coefficient increases with agent analytical sophistication, and may include an endogenous “education” component.

  • [1] Parameter setting: talk-span = 0, 1, 4, 7, 10; threshold = 0, 0.04, 0.09, 0.16, 0.25, 0.36; RAP = true, false
 
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