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6.3.2. Europe

1) Europe is shifting its borders eastwards again. This time it must not overstretch.

2) In the thirteenth century, various Mongol tribes made Europe insecure and reduced its size: the Golden Horde took Kiev in 1240, spreading their terror as far west as France and Spain, the Seljuks conquered Constantinople in 1253. It has taken us 750 years to regain stability in Europe, delayed by disastrous adventures led by short men: Napoleon, Mussolini and Hitler. Now we must consolidate.

3) We are undergoing a revolution in Europe. At the same time we are in a period of transition and doubt. The new common political system is not yet in place and suffers from systemic problems; size, inefficiency, and inequality. These problems must be overcome.

4) There is not one Europe but three:

a) Western Europe : secular, democratic, the Europe of the positivist sciences, of progress, Christianized Europe forming the Latin pole, which was ruled from Rome, in accordance with the ideology of St Augustine (who himself was a Kabyle, a man of the Berber people - the pride of Tunisia).

b) Orthodox Europe: the Europe of the Serbs, the Europe of the State church, of authoritarianism and fortifications. They use Greek or Cyrillic script. Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo, and Albania: these cultures are all influenced by the Turks, latecomers to Europe, poorly integrated. This is the Byzantine Europe which never stabilized. Greece today is suffering from its past influence.

c) Then there is Russian Europe, which was born out of Byzantine Europe via Kiev and destroyed by the Mongols in 1245 - the same Mongols who ruled Russia for three hundred years. It was a period of violence, brutality, bloodshed. All these events have shaped the Russian character. In Russia we see a generous society, full of compassion, but unpredictable, capable of killing the very next day. This is the Russian-Tartar world, which stretches all the way to Vladivostok.

4) Europe runs at four speeds:

a) Atlantic (high-tech)

b) German (mechanistic), Baltic, and Eastern European

c) Russian

d) Balkan, parts of Italy, Greece.

5) The EU of today is all but accidental, and its borders no longer match religious and ethnic boundaries.

6) The EU has yet to come up with a common foreign policy. Without it the Union will keep losing ground vis-à-vis the USA and China. The Lisbon Treaty is the first vital step.

7) Europe and the EU will rise again after its debt problems, but it will be on new and more realistic lines.

8) In today's Europe of 450 million inhabitants, twice as many speak German as French.

9) German-speaking Europe has direct access to Byzantine and Russian Europe. The French have direct access to North Africa. It is obvious who has the geopolitical advantage. It means that the French must work twice as hard if they want to compete. Instead they will continue their decline among world powers, rescued mainly by the Chinese' demand for luxury products.

10) With the new EU member states there will be a clear shift eastward, among other things for the location of the common European institutions. The economic centre will shift from London to Frankfurt in the 21st century, since London will cease to be the financial centre of the world.

11) In Europe, work is a punishment for original sin. You have to work to live. In Asia, people take time to get to know each other before they decide to do business. In Europe you need contracts to work together. In Asia you build trust first. In Europe the contract is the end of negotiations, in Asia it is the beginning of a relationship.

12) Europe is moving further away from the USA, politically and economically. Even Britain cannot delay the process too long with their traditional role of playing both sides.

13) We see three independent, strong economic blocs taking shape: Europe, the USA, and Asia (with China taking over the leading role from Japan). Japan will have to apologize for the atrocities they committed in the first half of the twentieth century (especially the Nanjing massacre151), as Germany did to the Allies. The Chinese will insist on this, they will not forget. They also want the Senkaku Islands back.

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